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The Challenge of Zonk
The challenge of Drinking Zonk is deciding when to stop rolling and take the points. Depending on where the game is and where you are in relation to the other players strategies can differ greatly. The one constant is the odds, so here they are, cold and matter of fact.
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The Odds Worked Out The odds of rolling at least one 1 or 5 when rolling: 5 dice: 211/243 86.8% or approximately 9 out of 10 rolls score 4 dice: 65/81 80.2% or approximately 4 out of 5 rolls score 3 dice: 19/27 70.4% or approximately 7 out of 10 rolls score 2 dice: 5/9 55.6% or approximately 1 out of 2 rolls score 1 die: 1/3 33.3% or approximately 3 out of 10 rolls score (Adding dice combinations will increase odds) Odds of hitting three of a kind: rolling 5 dice: about 14% or approximately 1 out of 7 rolls rolling 4 dice: about 6.4% or approximately 1 out of 15 rolls rolling 3 dice: about 1.8% or approximately 1 out of 50 rolls (Probability calculated using binomial distribution formula.) What's a Good Turn? One more thing that a player has to consider before deciding when to take the points is just how many points makes a good turn. 1,050 points is, obviously, a great turn because it earmarks creating a rule and 50 points is, obviously, not a very good turn. Somewhere between these two points there should be a boundary line. Consider the challenge of getting on the board with 350 points. Although very attainable, it typically takes a few turns to get to this score. Often times a player will roll 300 points and not be able to convert those last 50 points to get the player onto the board. For some players this may seem low, for some high, but 300 is a decent rule of thumb. Situations After knowing the probabilities a player must also consider situational complexities. Included in these are the relative positions of players, the probable number of turns left before the leader wins the game, and the number of points being put at risk in a particular roll. Three Situations Lets consider these three situations and then adjust for the millions of other combinations that are possible in any game: Early game close score Early in the game the idea is to set the tempo of the game by taking few risks and scoring as often as possible. Assuming a player is already on the board it makes sense to take 250 points with two dice to roll. This means that it should only be three or four turns before the player gets to pass out drinks. It also means that a player continues to apply pressure on the other players as you approach 2,500 and a rule. Late game close score As the game approaches the end and the scores are close, within 200 or 300 points, and assuming the player is in the lead or very near the lead, it might be a wise idea to raise the cut off level from around 350 to something more like 450. Taking the bigger risks at the end of the game can payoff in that if their luck runs the player can grow a nearly insurmountable lead but if the player can’t convert the turns into points there isn’t much to worry about. For example, perhaps a player has 350 points and 1 die to roll. If the player risks it there is still a 1 out of 3 chance to roll a scoring die. The player then has the opportunity to pick up all the dice, roll a huge score and take a substantial lead. Late game lopsided score If the game matures and a player is either ahead or behind by a large margin it typically makes sense for the player to start rolling for the next 1,000 point mark. If a player has a 350 points and is only 50 points shy of getting the next 1,000 it might make sense to risk the points with two dice left or even one. Because the odds of scoring that 50 points is better than half with two dice and one out of three with one die, and because the player is not risking winning or losing, the goal is too close to not risk it. Like Pot Odds Whatever strategy, the most important thing is to know what the odds are and when to try and beat the odds. A player should know the risks on each roll and the advantages. A poker player might use the analogy by calling it pot odds. Just a Start These pointers are only a starting point. As a player gets more experience they will add to and change these rules of thumb strategies. |
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